Nick Freiling, the CEO of a market research firm, who bet $300 on a Trump victory in traditionally Democratic Minnesota, says it’s normal for the gap between the candidates to narrow as November approaches.
The coronavirus crisis is another major factor, he said — Trump faced sharp criticism for his handling of the pandemic, but the issue “is steadily falling out of our public consciousness, and people are less angry about things, generally.”
Collins said he didn’t believe the polls were “representative of reality” and said the margin of error “must be so high.”
For Freiling, “the polls may be of ‘likely voters’ and show Biden winning. But what about voters’ enthusiasm for their candidate (which correlates with turnout? Trump is winning that battle by huge margins.”
“Watch where the money goes,” Collins said, predicting that Trump will dominate his three debates with Biden. “That’s what people really care about.”
He noted that voters can lie to pollsters about who they are supporting, which could skew results.
Those with skin in the betting game are also keeping an eye on the likely massive proportion of votes cast by mail this year, due to coronavirus concerns — a potential game changer.
“That feels like a situation that could get very messy,” Collins said.